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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.